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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.