Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
